Okay seriously this technology still baffles me. Like its cool but why invest so much in an unknown like AIs future ? We could invest in people and education and end up with really smart people. For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
Because rulling class got high on the promise that they could finally eliminate workers as a cost and be independent from us.
They don’t want to get rid of workers because then there would be no consumers. No, they want to increase the downward pressure on wages so they can vacuum up further savings.
Why? If you automatize away (regardless of whether it’s feasible or not) all the workers, what’s stop them for cutting them out of the equation? Why can’t they just trade assets between themselves, maintaining a small slave population that does machine maintenance for food and shelter and screwing the rest? Why do you think they still need us if they own both the means for the production as well as labor to produce? That would be a post-labour scarcity economy, available only for the wealthy and with the rest of us left to rot. If you have assets like land, materials, factories you can participate, if you don’t, you can’t
While I don’t think that this is feasible technologically yet by any means, I think this is what the rich are huffing currently. They want to be independent from us because they are threatened by us.
They want you to owe your soul to the company store, to live hand-to-mouth by their largess.
For the cost of an education we could end up with smart people who contribute to the economy and society. Instead we are dumping billions into this shit.
Those are different "we"s.
Tech/Wall St constantly needs something to hype in order to bring in “investor” money. The “new technology-> product development -> product -> IPO” pipeline is now “straight to pump-and-dump” (for example, see Crypto currency).
The excitement of the previous hype train (self-driving cars) is no longer bringing in starry-eyed “investors” willing to quickly part ways with OPM. “AI” made a big splash and Tech/Wall St is going to milk it for all they can lest they fall into the same bad economy as that one company that didn’t jam the letters “AI” into their investor summary.
Tech has laid off a lot of employees, which means they are aware there is nothing else exciting in the near horizon. They also know they have to flog “AI” like crazy before people figure out there’s no “there” there.
That “investors” scattered like frightened birds at the mere mention of a cheaper version means that they also know this is a bubble. Everyone wants the quick money. More importantly they don’t want to be the suckers left holding the bag.
It’s like how revolutionary battery technology is always just months away.
I follow EV battery tech a little. You’re not wrong that there is a lot of “oh its just around the bend” in battery development and tech development in general. I blame marketing for 80% of that.
But battery technology is changing drastically. The giant cell phone market is pushing battery tech relentlessly. Add in EV and grid storage demand growth and the potential for some companies to land on top of a money printing machine is definitely there.
We’re in a golden age of battery research. Exciting for our future, but it will be a while before we consumers will have clear best options.
It’s easier to sell people on the idea of a new technology or system that doesn’t have any historical precedent. All you have to do is list the potential upsides.
Something like a school or a workplace training programme, those are known quantities. There’s a whole bunch of historical and currently-existing projects anyone can look at to gauge the cost. Your pitch has to be somewhat realistic compared to those, or it’s gonna sound really suspect.
Because the silicon valley bros had convinced the national security wonks in the Beltway that it was paramount for national security, technological leadership and economic prosperity.
I think this will go down as the biggest grift in history.
Kevin Walmsley reported on Deepseek 10 days ago. Last week, the smart money exited big tech. This week the panic starts.
I’m getting big dot-com 2.0 vibes from all of this.
Education doesn’t make a tech CEO ridiculously wealthy, so there’s no draw for said CEOs to promote the shit out of education.
Plus educated people tend to ask for more salary. Can’t do that and become a billionaire!
And you could pay people to use an abacus instead of a calculator. But the advanced tech improves productivity for everyone, and helps their output.
If you don’t get the tech, you should play with it more.
I get the tech, and still agree with the preposter. I’d even go so far as that it probably worsens a lot currently, as it’s generating a lot of bullshit that sounds great on the surface, but in reality is just regurgitated stuff that the AI has no clue of. For example I’m tired of reading AI generated text, when a hand written version would be much more precise and has some character at least…
Try getting a quick powershell script from Microsoft help or spiceworks. And then do the same on GPT
What should I expect? (I don’t do powershell, nor do I have a need for it)
I think the sentiment is the same with any code language.
So unreliable boilerplate generator, you need to debug?
Right I’ve seen that it’s somewhat nice to quickly generate bash scripts etc.
It can certainly generate quick’n dirty scripts as a starter. But code quality is often supbar (and often incorrect), which triggers my perfectionism to make it better, at which point I should’ve written it myself…
But I agree that it can often serve well for exploration, and sometimes you learn new stuff (if you weren’t expert in it at least, and you should always validate whether it’s correct).
But actual programming in e.g. Rust is a catastrophe with LLMs (more common languages like js work better though).
I use C# and PS/CMD for my job. I think you’re right. It can create a decent template for setting things up. But it trips on its own dick with anything more intricate than simple 2 step commands.
If you are blindly asking it questions without a grounding resources you’re gonning to get nonsense eventually unless it’s really simple questions.
They aren’t infinite knowledge repositories. The training method is lossy when it comes to memory, just like our own memory.
Give it documentation or some other context and ask it questions it can summerize pretty well and even link things across documents or other sources.
The problem is that people are misusing the technology, not that the tech has no use or merit, even if it’s just from an academic perspective.
Yes, I know, I tried all kinds of inputs, ways to query it, including full code-bases etc. Long story short: I’m faster just not caring about AI (at the moment). As I said somewhere else here, I have a theoretical background in this area. Though speaking of, I think I really need to try out training or refining a DeepSeek model with our code-bases, whether it helps to be a good alternative to something like the dumb Github Copilot (which I’ve also disabled, because it produces a looot of garbage that I don’t want to waste my attention with…) Maybe it’s now finally possible to use at least for completion when it knows details about the whole code-base (not just snapshots such as Github CoPilot).
It’s one thing to be ignorant. It’s quite another to be confidently so in the face of overwhelming evidence that you’re wrong. Impressive.
confidently so in the face of overwhelming evidence
That I’d really like to see. And I mean more than the marketing bullshit that AI companies are doing…
For the record I was one of the first jumping on the AI hype-train (as programmer, and computer-scientist with machine-learning background), following the development of GPT1-4, being excited about having to do less boilerplaty code etc. getting help about rough ideas etc. GPT4 was almost so far as being a help (similar with o1 etc. or Anthropics models). Though I seldom use AI currently (and I’m observing similar with other colleagues and people I know of) because it actually slows me down with my stuff or gives wrong ideas, having to argue, just to see it yet again saturating at a local-minimum (aka it doesn’t get better, no matter what input I try). Just so that I have to do it myself… (which I should’ve done in the first place…).
Same is true for the image-generative side (i.e. first with GANs now with diffusion-based models).
I can get into more details about transformer/attention-based-models and its current plateau phase (i.e. more hardware doesn’t actually make things significantly better, it gets exponentially more expensive to make things slightly better) if you really want…
I hope that we do a breakthrough of course, that a model actually really learns reasoning, but I fear that that will take time, and it might even mean that we need different type of hardware.
Any other AI company, and most of that would be legitimate criticism of the overhype used to generate more funding. But how does any of that apply to DeepSeek, and the code & paper they released?
DeepSeek
Yeah it’ll be exciting to see where this goes, i.e. if it really develops into a useful tool, for certain. Though I’m slightly cautious non-the less. It’s not doing something significantly different (i.e. it’s still an LLM), it’s just a lot cheaper/efficient to train, and open for everyone (which is great).
What’s this “if” nonsense? I loaded up a light model of it, and already have put it to work.
“Improves productivity for everyone”
Famously only one class benefits from productivity, while one generates the productivity. Can you explain what you mean, if you don’t mean capitalistic productivity?
I’m referring to output for amount of work put in.
I’m a socialist. I care about increased output leading to increased comfort for the general public. That the gains are concentrated among the wealthy is not the fault of technology, but rather those who control it.
Thank god for DeepSeek.
Look at it in another way, people think this is the start of an actual AI revolution, as in full blown AGI or close to it or something very capable at least. Personally I don’t think we’re anywhere near something like that with the current technology, I think it’s a dead end, but if there’s even a small possibility of it being true, you want to invest early because the returns will be insane if it pans out. Full blown AGI would revolutionize everything, it would probably be the next industrial revolution after the internet.
Look at it in another way, people think this is the start of an actual AI revolution, as in full blown AGI or close to it or something very capable at least
I think the bigger threat of revolution (and counter-revolution) is that of open source software. For people that don’t know anything about FOSS, they’ve been told for decades now that [XYZ] software is a tool you need and that’s only possible through the innovative and superhuman-like intelligent CEOs helping us with the opportunity to buy it.
If everyone finds out that they’re actually the ones stifling progress and development, while manipulating markets to further enrich themselves and whatever other partners that align with that goal, it might disrupt the golden goose model. Not to mention defrauding the countless investors that thought they were holding rocket ship money that was actually snake oil.
All while another country did that collectively and just said, “here, it’s free. You can even take the code and use it how you personally see fit, because if this thing really is that thing, it should be a tool anyone can access. Oh, and all you other companies, your code is garbage btw. Ours runs on a potato by comparison.”
I’m just saying, the US has already shown they will go to extreme lengths to keep its citizens from thinking too hard about how its economic model might actually be fucking them while the rich guys just move on to the next thing they’ll sell us.
ETA: a smaller scale example: the development of Wine, and subsequently Proton finally gave PC gamers a choice to move away from Windows if they wanted to.
How would the investors profit from paying for someone’s education? By giving them a loan? Don’t we have enough problems with the student loan system without involving these assholes more?
Okay, cool…
So, how much longer before Nvidia stops slapping a “$500-600 RTX XX70” label on a $300 RTX XX60 product with each new generation?
The thinly-veiled 75-100% price increases aren’t fun for those of us not constantly-touching-themselves over AI.
I’m so happy this happened. This is really a power move from China. The US was really riding the whole AI bubble. By “just” releasing a powerful open-source AI model they’ve fucked the not so open US AI companies. I’m not sure if this was planned from China or whether this is was really just a small company doing this because they wanted to, but either way this really damages the western economy. And its given western consumers a free alternative. A few million dollars invested (if we are to believe the cost figures) for a major disruption.
Socialism/Communism will always outcompete the capitalists. And they know it, which is why the US invades, topples, or sanctions every country that moves towards worker controlled countries.
Yeah that’s why the Soviet union outcompeted capitalism in the 1980s lmao
That you had to qualify it with a date after it had been corrupted by the west, implies that you’re well aware of how well communism served for half a century before that.
They went from a nation of dirt poor peasants, to a nuclear superpower driving the space race in just a couple of decades. All thanks to communism. And also why China is leaving us in the dust.
There are many instances of communism failing lmao
There are also many current communist states that have less freedom than many capitalist states
Also, you need to ask the Uyghurs how they’re feeling about their experience under the communist government you’re speaking so highly of at the moment.
you need to ask the Uyghurs how they’re feeling about their experience under the communist government
Everytime people ask regular Uyghurs, they’re usually happy enough with it. I’m guessing you mean ask Adrian Zenz and the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation to tell the Uyghurs what they think.
How many of those instances failed due to external factors, such as illegal sanctions or a western coup or western military aggression?
Which communist states would you say have less freedom than your country? Let’s compare.
The Uyghur genocide was debunked. Even the US state department was forced to admit they didn’t have the evidence to support their claims. In reality, western intelligence agencies were trying to radicalize the Uyghurs to destabilize the region, but China has been rehabilitating them. The intel community doesn’t like their terrorist fronts to be shut down.
Its smells like wumao in here.
LMAO found the pro-Xi propagandist account
Either you’re brainwashed, are only reading one-sided articles, or you’re an adolescent with little world experience given how confidently you speak in absolutes, which doesn’t reflect how nuanced the global stage is.
I’m not saying capitalism is the best, but communism won’t ALWAYS beat out capitalism (as it hasn’t regardless of external factors b/c if those regimes were strong enough they would be able to handle or recover from external pressures) nor does it REQUIRE negatively affecting others as your other comment says. You’re just delulu.
Remember, while there maybe instances where all versions of a certain class of anything are equal, in most cases they are not. So blanketly categorizing as your have done just reflects your lack of historical perspective.
You should really drop the overconfidence, and re-evaluate your biases and perspectives. Regurgitating western propaganda almost verbatim is not a good sign that you’re on the right path.
Yeah just had to genocide a few million Ukrainians to get there!
Any corrupt leaders are capable of committing genocide. The difference is capitalism requires genocide to continue functioning.
How’s that boot taste
LoL. What boot? I’m advocating for worker control, genius.
No it doesn’t. It requires imperialism. The genocides are simply efficient for the imperial machine creating settlements, but it’s not a requirement. They’re evidently avoidable and capitalists just repeatedly decide not to avoid it because they consider it cheaper to commit genocide rather than integrate more passively.
Imperialism requires genocide. Where do you think the people from that land go to?
You don’t even realise how strong capitalism is in China.
It sounds like you don’t know what “capitalism” means. Market participation exists in other economy types, too. It’s how the means of production are controlled and the profits distributed that defines capitalism vs communism.
And you don’t lift 800 million people out of poverty under capitalism. Or they’ve done a ridiculously bad job of concentrating profits into the hands of a very small few.
The issue with your original comment is that it’s simplified on many levels beyond what is acceptable. China has companies working on delivering highest financial output regardless of other citizens and their rights to have fair share in produced goods. They are by no means controlled by workers (why would they accept e. g. 996?) nor creating fair rules to others economically (e.g. Taobao and their alghorims pushing many sellers to sell bellow profitable levels just to maintain visibility on their site). Put it also into wider perspective: China started to move forward in quality of life only after Deng. US system is by no means bad but it doesn’t make Chinese one perfect.
I don’t think you understand how China’s economy works. Seems very clouded by anti-China propaganda.
In reality, the working class exercises a great deal of control over the means of production in China, and the 996 culture you’re referring to is in fact illegal.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58381538.amp
Again, capitalism vs communism is not defined by the existence of production/profits/markets, but how control and benefit of those systems is distributed.
We need to open source the whole government. Decentralized communism.
Absolutely. More direct democracy. The whole point of representative democracy is issues of time and distance. Now that we can communicate fast and across the globe, average citizens should play a much larger & more active role in directing the government.
How do you solve the problem that half the country can’t even be bothered to participate once every four years?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m with you 100%, but how would we get people to engage with such a system?
Imagine you had a lemmy instance that every post was a proposal for regulation in your community/region. Anyone can make a post, some will gain traction and support, some will be worthless and fall off quickly. If the proposal gains enough support it then goes to a vote post where people get to make an official vote. Could be to charge $40 for a speeding ticket instead of $50, could be a trade agreement with another region.
I think this method would give people equity in the system. Maybe it could also be scored on a curve depending on how much it effects you as an individual. Maybe having advanced education on a topic means your say has more weight to it than someone without.
I was thinking of ways to move towards this and so far my best idea is to build it and run it in parrelel with what we have now. Get it functioning and trusted and simply try to roll over what we have now. I figure something tragic would need to happen to create a power void for full implementation. Like yellowstone erupting or something. I was also thinking that we need to teach the kids. We need to give them tools to build on so they can take this kind of idea to fruition.
I am just a regular idiot, so feel free to add anything constructive.
It’s a great idea. I think half the people just don’t give a fuck at all.
Among people who say they care- look how rapidly disinformation is spread about anything and everything. Billionaires would be gaming the system from the get-go. I’m just pessimistic. I really do love the idea and I hope we get there some day.
Based on how Trump 2.0 is going though we might just get that tragedy.
I don’t think this idea I have involves any billionaires with power. It would be pointless. With everything decentralized there would be no mega corps at all. They wouldn’t have politicians to bribe. They would have to make the majority of people happy with them to be allowed. I also consider that in a world designed for quality of life instead of profit we wouldn’t need to have 9-5 jobs to survive. Our production has been growing rapidly for a long time and all of the proceeds have been getting held by ~1000 people who have centralized profits to themselves. With decentralized communism the economy would be like one big co-op. No company owners, the community would have say in how products are sourced and distributed. How people who invest more in the system are rewarded by the system. Couple things to help understand where my head is at. I think we can decentralize and open source services like amazon, home depot, walmart,… We don’t need oligarchy to come together and use economy of scale. We could have a sales platform free for everyone that could source directly from manufacturers. No mark up, not even in the manufacturing. No profit model at all. This factors in that labor needs are going to plummet. Take media, I predict all media will be AI generated and personalized. You could have a never ending show. One that knows how to keep you entertained. You could even be a character in it where your screen is just the view, so now we are in VR, like a gta map. Now the big change, This will all happen in our heads. check this shit out https://synchron.com/ . We are about to have hivemind irl. I only want to discuss posative implications. I am super fucked up over thinking about what capitalism is going to do with direct access to our subconsciousness.
How do you solve the problem that half the country can’t even be bothered to participate once every four years?
I assume you’re talking about the US electoral system?? That’s very different.
but how would we get people to engage with such a system?
By empowering them.
Consider how the current electoral system disempowers people:
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Some people literally cannot vote or risk jeopardizing their job taking the day off, others face voter suppression tactics
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The FPTP system (esp. spoiler effect) and the present political circumstances mean that there are really only two viable options for political parties for most people, so many feel that neither option represents them, let alone their individual positions on policy
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Politics is widely considered to be corrupt and break electoral promises regularly. There is little faith in either party to represent voters
But, in a system where you are able to represent yourself at will, engagement is actually rewarding and meaningful. It won’t magically make everyone care, but direct democracy alongside voter rights reform would likely make more people think it’s worth polling.
I hope you’re right. I would love to see it. I actually support mandatory voting like in Australia. With mostly current laws everyone could get a mail in ballot. If you don’t want to participate just check that box at the top, sign it, and send it in.
Your system sounds much better but would require a lot more legislation.
Well, it would require more than just legislation change. Truth be told, in the US, a working democracy requires some form of revolution since the people holding all the power benefit from the broken system. But on the other hand, organizations and communities (including territories of hundreds of thousands) practicing direct democracy on a smaller scale have seen success with these strategies.
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I think you’re victim blaming. I can’t blame half the country for not wanting to participate in a symbolic gesture that will have no impact on the end result in this corrupted system.
https://pnhp.org/news/gilens-and-page-average-citizens-have-little-impact-on-public-policy/
I disagree. Under the right conditions (read: actual competition instead of unregulated monopolies) I think a capitalist system be able to stay ahead, though I think both systems could compete depending on how they’re organized.
But what I’m more interested in is you view that China is still Socialist/Communist. Isn’t DeepSeek a private company trying to maximize profits for itself by innovating, instead of a public company funded by the people? I don’t really know myself, but my perspective was that this was more of a capitalist vs capitalist situation. With one side (the US) kinda suffering from being so unregulated that innovation dies down.
Capitalism will by its very nature always lead to monopolies and depressed innovation. You cannot prevent corruption, while concentrating control of the means of production in the hands of a very few.
They released DeepSeek for free. It was a side project the company worked on. How is releasing it for free in any way profit seeking?
Good. Nvidia has grown greedy and fat.
I should really start looking into shorting stocks. I was looking at the news and Nvidia’s stock and thought “huh, the stock hasn’t reacted to these news at all yet, I should probably short this”.
And then proceeded to do fuck all.
I guess this is why some people are rich and others are like me.
It’s been proven that people who do fuckall after throwing their money into mutual funds generally fare better than people actively monitoring and making stock moves.
You’re probably fine.
I never bought NVIDIA in the first place so this news doesn’t affect me.
If anything now would be a good time to buy NVIDIA. But I probably won’t.
The vast majority of my invested money is in SPY. I had a lot of “money” wiped out yesterday. It’s already trending back up. I’m holding for now.
It’s pretty difficult to open a true short position. Providers like Robinhood create contract for differences which are subject to their TOS.
They probably mean buy puts but they don’t have the knowledge to know the vocabulary.
What the fuck are markets when you can automate making money on them???
Ive been WTF about the stock market for a long time but now it’s obviously a scam.
The stock market is nothing more than a barometer for the relative peace of mind of rich people.
Economics is a social science not a hard science, it’s highly reactive to rumors and speculation. The stock market kind of does just run on vibes.
Try asking DeepSeek something about Xi Jinping. "Sorry, it’s beyond my current scope’ :-) Wondering why even it cannot cite his official party biography :-)
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t ask any chatbot about politics at all.
It’s easy to mod the software to get rid of those censors
Part of why the US is so afraid is because anyone can download it and start modding it easily, and because the rich make less money
Try asking ChatGPT if Israel is committing genocide and watch it do the magical Hasbara dance around the subject.
The official hosting of it has censorship applied after the answer is generated, but from what I heard the locally run version has no censorship even though they could have theoretically trained it to.
I’ve never been so happy to cancel a subscription.
Was watching bbc news interview some American guy about this and wow they were really pushing that it’s no big deal and deepseek is way behind and a bit of a joke. Made claims they weren’t under cyber attack they just couldn’t handle having traffic etc.
Kinda making me root for China honestly.
deleted by creator
This has nothing to do with DeepSeek. The world has run out of flashy leather jackets for Jensen to wear, so nvidia is toast.
Good. Let’s keep this ball rolling.
nvidia falling doesn’t make much sense to me, GPUs are still needed to run the model. Unless Nvidia is involved in its own AI model or something?
If you need far less computing power to train the models, far less gpus are needed, and that hurts nvidia
does it really need less power? I’m playing around with it now and I’m pretty impressed so far. it can do math, at least.
That’s the claim, it has apparently been trained using a fraction of the compute power of the GPT models and achieves similar results.
fascinating. my boss really bought into the tech bro bullshit, every time we get coffee as a team, he’s always going on and on about how chatGPT will be the savior of humanity, increase productivity so much that we’ll have a 2 day work week, blah blah blah.
I’ve been on his shit list lately because i had to take some medical leave and didn’t deliver my project on time.
Now that this thing is open sourced, I can bring it to him, tell him it out performs even chatgpt O1 or whatever it is, and tell him that we can operate it locally. I’ll be off the shit list and back into his good graces and maybe even get a raise.
Your boss sounds like he buys into bullshit for a living. Maybe that’s what drew him to the job, lol.
I think believing in our corporate AI overlords is even overshadowed by believing those same corporations would pass the productivity gains on to their employees.
Make sure you explain open source to them so they know it’s not spyware.
But I feel like that will just lead to more training with the same (or more) hardware with a more efficient model. Bitcoin mining didn’t slow down only because it got harder. However I don’t know enough about the training process. I assume more efficient use of the hardware would allow for larger models to be trained on the same hardware and training data?
They’ll probably do that, but that’s assuming we aren’t past the point of diminishing returns.
The current LLM’s are pretty basic in how they work, and it could be that with the current training we’re near what they’ll ever be capable of. They’ll of course invest a billion in training a new generation, but if it’s only marginally better than the current one, they won’t keep investing billions into it if it doesn’t really improve the results.
DeepSeek proved you didn’t need anywhere near as much hardware to train or run an even better AI model
Imagine what would happen to oil prices if a manufacturer comes out with a full ice car that can run 1000 miles per gallon… Instead of the standard American 3 miles per 1.5 gallons hehehe
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
more efficient use of oil will lead to increased demand, and will not slow the arrival or the effects of peak oil.
Energy demand is infinite and so is the demand for computing power because humans always want to do MORE.
Yes but that’s not the point… If you can buy a house for $1000 nobody would buy a similar house for $500000
Eventually the field would even out and maybe demand would surpass current levels, but for the time being, Nvidia’s offer seem to be a giant surplus and speculators will speculate
ROFL 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 eat shit, Huang
And nothing at all to do with tariffs on TSMC?
I really hope this is the beginning of a massive correction on AI hype.
It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI, not thinking AI has less value.
Or from the sounds of it, doing things more efficiently.
Fewer cycles required, less hardware required.Maybe this was an inevitability, if you cut off access to the fast hardware, you create a natural advantage for more efficient systems.
That’s generally how tech goes though. You throw hardware at the problem until it works, and then you optimize it to run on laptops and eventually phones. Usually hardware improvements and software optimizations meet somewhere in the middle.
Look at photo and video editing, you used to need a workstation for that, and now you can get most of it on your phone. Surely AI is destined to follow the same path, with local models getting more and more robust until eventually the beefy cloud services are no longer required.
The problem for American tech companies is that they didn’t even try to move to stage 2.
OpenAI is hemorrhaging money even on their most expensive subscription and their entire business plan was to hemorrhage money even faster to the point they would use entire power stations to power their data centers. Their plan makes about as much sense as digging your self out of a hole by trying to dig to the other side of the globe.
Hey, my friends and I would’ve made it to China if recess was a bit longer.
Seriously though, the goal for something like OpenAI shouldn’t be to sell products to end customers, but to license models to companies that sell “solutions.” I see these direct to consumer devices similarly to how GPU manufacturers see reference cards or how Valve sees the Steam Deck: they’re a proof of concept for others to follow.
OpenAI should be looking to be more like ARM and less like Apple. If they do that, they might just grow into their valuation.
China really has nothing to do with it, it could have been anyone. It’s a reaction to realizing that GPT4-equivalent AI models are dramatically cheaper to train than previously thought.
It being China is a noteable detail because it really drives the nail in the coffin for NVIDIA, since China has been fenced off from having access to NVIDIA’s most expensive AI GPUs that were thought to be required to pull this off.
It also makes the USA gov look extremely foolish to have made major foreign policy and relationship sacrifices in order to try to delay China by a few years, when it’s January and China has already caught up, those sacrifices did not pay off, in fact they backfired and have benefited China and will allow them to accelerate while hurting USA tech/AI companies
Oh US has been doing this kind of thing for decades! This isn’t new.
It’s a reaction to thinking China has better AI
I don’t think this is the primary reason behind Nvidia’s drop. Because as long as they got a massive technological lead it doesn’t matter as much to them who has the best model, as long as these companies use their GPUs to train them.
The real change is that the compute resources (which is Nvidia’s product) needed to create a great model suddenly fell of a cliff. Whereas until now the name of the game was that more is better and scale is everything.
China vs the West (or upstart vs big players) matters to those who are investing in creating those models. So for example Meta, who presumably spends a ton of money on high paying engineers and data centers, and somehow got upstaged by someone else with a fraction of their resources.
…in a cave with Chinese knockoffs!
I really don’t believe the technological lead is massive.
Looking at the market cap of Nvidia vs their competitors the market belives it is, considering they just lost more than AMD/Intel and the likes are worth combined and still are valued at $2.9 billion.
And with technology i mean both the performance of their hardware and the software stack they’ve created, which is a big part of their dominance.
Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.
My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.
However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true. I mean, it hasn’t been true for a really long time. Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.
Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.
I have to concede that point to some degree, since i guess i hold similar views with Tesla’s value vs the rest of the automotive Industry. But i still think that the basic hirarchy holds true with nvidia being significantly ahead of the pack.
My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.
Imo you are too optimistic with those estimations, particularly with Intel and China, although i am not an expert in the field.
As i see it AMD seems to have a quite decent product with their instinct cards in the server market on the hardware side, but they wish they’d have something even close to CUDA and its mindshare. Which would take years to replicate. Intel wish they were only a year behind Nvidia. And i’d like to comment on China, but tbh i have little to no knowledge of their state in GPU development. If they are “2 years, probably less” behind as you say, then they should have something like the rtx 4090, which was released end of 2022. But do they have something that even rivals the 2000 or 3000 series cards?
However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true.
But the issue is they all make their chips at the same manufacturer, TSMC, even Intel in the case of their GPUs. So they can’t really differentiate much on manufacturing costs and are also competing on the same limited supply. So no one can offer 80% of performance at 10% price, or even close to it. Additionally everything around the GPU (datacenters, rack space, power useage during operation etc.) also costs, so it is only part of the overall package cost and you also want to optimize for your limited space. As i understand it datacenter building and power delivery for them is actually another limiting factor right now for the hyperscalers.
Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.
Google yes with their TPUs, but the others all use Nvidia or AMD chips to train. Amazon has their Graviton CPUs, which are quite competitive, but i don’t think they have anything on the GPU side. DeepSeek is way to small and new for custom chips, they evolved out of a hedge fund and just use nvidia GPUs as more or less everyone else.
Thanks for high effort reply.
The Chinese companies probably use SIMC over TSMC from now on. They were able to do low volume 7 nm last year. Also, Nvidia and “China” are not on the same spot on the tech s-curve. It will be much cheaper for China (and Intel/AMD) to catch up, than it will be for Nvidia to maintain the lead. Technological leaps and reverse engineering vs dimishing returns.
Also, expect that the Chinese government throws insane amounts of capital at this sector right now. So unless Stargate becomes a thing (though I believe the Chinese invest much much more), there will not be fair competition (as if that has ever been a thing anywhere anytime). China also have many more tools, like optional command economy. The US has nothing but printing money and manipulating oligarchs on a broken market.
I’m not sure about 80/10 exactly of course, but it is in that order of magnitude, if you’re willing to not run newest fancy stuff. I believe the MI300X goes for approx 1/2 of the H100 nowadays and is MUCH better on paper. We don’t know the real performance because of NDA (I believe). It used to be 1/4. If you look at VRAM per $, the ratio is about 1/10 for the 1/4 case. Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.
So, my bet is max 2 years for “China”. At least when it comes to high-end performance per dollar. Max 1 year for AMD and Intel (if Intel survive).
From what I understand, it’s more that it takes a lot less money to train your own llms with the same powers with this one than to pay license to one of the expensive ones. Somebody correct me if I’m wrong
It’s about cheap Chinese AI
I wouldn’t be surprised if China spent more on AI development than the west did, sure here we spent tens of billions while China only invested a few million but that few million was actually spent on the development while out of the tens of billions all but 5$ was spent on bonuses and yachts.
Does it still need people spending huge amounts of time to train models?
After doing neural networks, fuzzy logic, etc. in university, I really question the whole usability of what is called “AI” outside niche use cases.
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😂
Exactly. Galaxy brains on Wall Street realizing that nvidia’s monopoly pricing power is coming to an end. This was inevitable - China has 4x as many workers as the US, trained in the best labs and best universities in the world, interns at the best companies, then, because of racism, sent back to China. Blocking sales of nvidia chips to China drives them to develop their own hardware, rather than getting them hooked on Western hardware. China’s AI may not be as efficient or as good as the West right now, but it will be cheaper, and it will get better.
It’s coming, Pelosi sold her shares like a month ago.
It’s going to crash, if not for the reasons she sold for, as more and more people hear she sold, they’re going to sell because they’ll assume she has insider knowledge due to her office.
Which is why politicians (and spouses) shouldn’t be able to directly invest into individual companies.
Even if they aren’t doing anything wrong, people will follow them and do what they do. Only a truly ignorant person would believe it doesn’t have an effect on other people.
It’s coming, Pelosi sold her shares like a month ago.
Yeah but only cause she was really disappointed with the 5000 series lineup. Can you blame her for wanting real rasterization improvements?
You joke but there’s a lot of grandma/grandpa gamers these days. Remember someone who played PC games back in the 80s would be on their 50s or 60s now. Or even older if they picked up the hobby as an adult in the 80s
Everyone’s disappointed with the 5000 series…
They’re giving up on improving rasterazation and focusing on “ai cores” because they’re using gpus to pay for the research into AI.
“Real” core count is going down on the 5000 series.
It’s not what gamers want, but they’re counting on people just buying the newest before asking if newer is really better. It’s why they’re already cutting 4000 series production, they just won’t give people the option.
I think everything under 4070 super is already discontinued
xx_Pelosi420_xx doesn’t settle for incremental upgrades
Pelosi says AI frames are fake frames.
I just hope it means I can get a high end GPU for less than a grand one day.
Prices rarely, if ever, go down and there is a push across the board to offload things “to the cloud” for a range of reasons.
That said: If your focus is on gaming, AMD is REAL good these days and, if you can get past their completely nonsensical naming scheme, you can often get a really good GPU using “last year’s” technology for 500-800 USD (discounted to 400-600 or so).
They definitely used to go down, just not since Bitcoin morphed into a speculative mania.
I’m using an Rx6700xt which you can get for about £300 and it works fine.
Edit: try using ollama on your PC. If your CPU is capable, that software should work out the rest.
Hope and cope
If anything, this will accelerate the AI hype, as big leaps forward have been made without increased resource usage.
Something is got to give. You can’t spend ~$200 billion annually on capex and get a mere $2-3 billion return on this investment.
I understand that they are searching for a radical breakthrough “that will change everything”, but there is also reasons to be skeptical about this (e.g. documents revealing that Microsoft and OpenAI defined AGI as something that can get them $100 billion in annual revenue as opposed to some specific capabilities).
