In most cases, it’s a slam dunk win unless things went really wrong. (say a pandemic)
I think people are severely overestimating how much of an impact being an incumbent actually has with the final results. In smaller elections this definitely has a big impact, but in the entirety of the US history we’ve only had 27 presidents run for reelection, and 9 of them have lost.
That’s a ~67% win rate for incumbent presidents, which isn’t terrible, but isn’t great either, and with a terrible sample size.
AI can be very useful, the problem here is humans trusting it to be accurate all the time.
In this case it should be used to narrow down results, but even then the police need to do their job. They need to do an actual investigation to gather evidence that they have the right person before even attempting to make am arrest.
Even removing AI from the picture entirely doesn’t solve this problem. Just look at wrongful arrests that have been made simply because a wanted criminal has the exact same name as someone else.