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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • Unpopular opinion but the simple fact is that you’re right. Turnout reflects enthusiasm and “status quo” and “you’ll be voting against the other worse guy” simply do not turn out voters.

    I’m going to vote, I always vote, but I am deeply concerned about the Democrats’ electoral strategy. Trump promises to blow things up. He’s full of shit and his plans will make everything worse for a lot of people, including his own voters, but the promise of radical change in itself is enticing for a disaffected electorate.

    The promise of more of the same is exactly the opposite of what motivates a disaffected electorate. The sometimes-voters will stay home if they aren’t given any reason to be enthusiastic.





  • There is no truth to this. A win in Oregon does not increase or decrease the chances of a future win in Oregon. The probabilities are fully independent of one another. There is no plausible means by which the probability of a future drawing selecting a ticket held in a particular state is affected by the residences of previous winning ticket holders.

    The idea that “X just won, therefore X is on a roll and will continue to win” and “X hasn’t won in a long time, therefore X is overdue for a win and should win in the near future” are both examples of the Gambler’s Fallacy.